The collapse of Russia is inevitable ?
Despite the seeming improbability, the answer is YES. The same was the case with the Soviet Union , even for the year , and even the day before its collapse it seemed impossible that it will destruct. It is worth mentioning that there have played a major role bureaucratic factors , it was a kind of " revolution from above ". It was betrayal of Mikhail Gorbachev and meeting of three groins (Yeltsin , Kravchuk and Shushkevich), which concluded an agreement between themselves and the country was no more. Howecver, even though the outcome of the referendum which took place on the beginning 1991 (90% voted for a "renewed" USSR) the society showed tacit support of it), all people have become nationally conscious and wanted to build a life in a private apartment, without this support such destroy was hardly possible.
You can call an infinite number of factors like that the Union could not restrain an arms race that has outlived itself economically, but still a fundamental factor was the weakening of the empire and major nation of it. Soviet Union repeated the fate of all multinational empires of the past (and a similar fate awaits all multinational empires of present and the future). Under the empire the author implies a multinational state as an antipode of mono ethnical state.
As soon as the nation who created an empire (or a ruler, draw on that people) gave a weak spot , all the other people here shows that there is no "racial or national tolerance" and immediately run away, often making its way very bloody. A similar fate befell the empire of Macedon, and the Roman Empire in ancient times, and the Mongol empire of Genghis Khan or the Polish Rzeczpospolita in the Middle Ages. The same was a fate of the British Empire, which flags eventually went down all around the world in the mid of XX century. The same was a fate of South Africa , where the state of Whites fell not so long ago . Obviously, that a similar fate, in part or in full , awaiting all other empires. The first is the U.S. in the coming decades, India and China may have problems within 200-300 years (although the last one might avoid a similar fate because of the ongoing genocide of conquered nations and ethnic Han settlement on their place, from the other hands, Han themselves, speak many different languages, which could lead to separatism ) .
Russian Empire provided the first slack at the beginning of last century, and lost part of "national" areas (more than decent for the area) - Finland, Poland, Manchuria, and also Iran that was about to be "joined" as a result of a bloody civil war that claimed lives of 7 million Slav population. The process continued to roll back (but not completed) in 1991, when the share of Russians in the Empire fell to 50 %. Endless experimentation of Communists over the people destroyed Russian feelings of leadership and sense of responsibility. Physical destruction (urbanization , famine in Ukraine and also on the Russian territories , abortion , etc.) resulted in the depopulation of the Slavic population and Russians in particular . In the territories where primitive peoples used to live - the mountaineers of Caucasus and Asians lost a cementing composition that could unite all of them into one entity (if necessary by force) and to prevent even greater bloodshed that we saw in the late 80 and 90s when mass terror of the Slavs took place as well as the humanitarian Catastrophe and their counterattacks on Russian territories. Is this good or bad? The answer is straightforward - good for other people and very, very bad for the Russians. Strong nation, a leading nation should not cut troubled lands (e.g. Chechnya ), but should make an order on it, otherwise the process of destruction won't stop . It used to and it always will be: at -first a person (or nation) seeks protection, and wants only to be left alone, but after it reaches the security it begins to attack others. You can eat - or be eaten, all disputes on this question - from the Evil one.
Divorce with the Slavs - Ukrainians and Belarussians, turned out to be peaceful. Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian nations have a few percent of radical nationalists, ready to fight. But this did not happen due to the lack of serious territorial disputes and lack of mass support of radical ideas throughout the population. People just decided to go different ways but there were no devastating aggression except, perhaps, the principal actions of several thousand fighters of the UNA- UNSO, which still were not able to ignite a war between states.
But we are talking now about the Russian Empire. After the next contraction, Russians got nearly mono-ethnic state - 80 % Russians, and the substantial part of the remaining 20% were closely related and assimilated Ukrainians, Belarusians, Germans, etc. Unfortunately, the decease captured the whole body (and especially the head) of the Empire, so the process did not stop, but accelerated instead. Even within the new state, it appeared "Russischefrei" areas (i.e. Russians-free). This is Chechnya, Ingushetia, Dagestan, and partially other republics of the North Caucasus - Ossetia , Karachay - Cherkessia , Adygea and Kabardino-Balkaria . As soon as the number of different nation in a certain area reaches a critical mass - they take power in their hands and there is no national friendship anymore Whatever was said, Chechnya is now an independent state on whose territory the government (Ramzan Kadyrov ) is doing whatever they want, while getting enormously huge subsidies. Chechen government gets EIGHT TIMES more money for each man living on its territory than territories in Central Russia, inhabited mostly by Slavs. Chechnya and its capital, Grozniy have good highways, new houses, perfect infrastructure and free utilities in many areas (they don't pay for electricity, gas, water) while they are freed from taxes A similar situation in Dagestan. At the same situation, Central Russia has destroyed roads, destroyed and forsaken schools in rural areas, bad hospitals, while taxes are huge and utility bills sometimes consists 30-50% of household income of poor families.
All of this are signs of further decline of the Russian Empire. Former President Vladimir Putin and current one Dmitriy Medvedev either are amazingly stupid people, or, more likely, deliberate liars who aim only on short-term profit and don't care what happens to country thereafter. Neglecting the role of the Russian people by Communist government led to the elimination of the USSR, the loss of 50% of the population, vast territories and resources. There has been no punishment for it. The current regime continues to this "job" in full swing . Russian population continues to decline but instead of promoting growth of the quantity of its own people, the government prefers to import millions of aliens. According to the UN 2008 report there were over 10 million of immigrants in Russia. This aliens replaces Russians in a government machine. Yes, they occupy domestic authorities, the police, the government (Mr. Nurgaliyev is the head of Interior Ministry). It is natural that they are defending their tribal interests , they support so-called "ethnic "crime, they cover crimes of their relatives and tribesmen, they promote actions of physical intimidation and violence. They often use government machine to pursue their own commercial or criminal interests. If the case is Russian vs national minority representative, Russian will be defeated and pleaded guilty. He'll go to the prison or his assets will be passed over to aliens not because he violated the law but simply because an investigator and judge were aliens and they help people of their own nation according to their Diaspora will. As a result of national conflicts, if the local police station consists of aliens they always beat and arrest Russians. And so on. This information is covered in detail in different articles. In this one we repeat say that all cases mentioned above are clear signs of continuing degradation of Russia and its further decay. Some bursts of anti-Russians aggression will be replaced by an all-pervasive terror as it happened in Azerbaijan, Tajikistan and many other states in 90s, and any resistance will be brutally suppressed not only by "ethnic" gangs but even more by the state machine - Caucasus and Asian cops, judges and prosecutors .
Even worse, the ethnic constitution of the Russian army, especially "people with guns" i.e. people who are directly able to take power into their own hands, strongly shifted in favor of the Caucasus, especially Dagestanis. Every year there are thousands of small ethnic conflicts in the army and dozens of big ones. There is no doubt that in the event of a ethnic war, the non-Russian soldiers are going to join their tribesmen. At best case they'll desert, at worst case they'll easily take control over their bases and heavy weapons. They may not capture the whole Russia, but they have a power to tear away large areas, such as the North Caucasus and Adygea up to Taman. Try to imagine what will happen if, let's say , 50% of the army consists of an aliens - conscripts and contract soldiers, many of them even without Russian citizenship (especially the Central Asian riff ). It'll end up with the total massacre, mass rape and conquest of the big territories. Roman and Byzantine empires already passed through the collapse of their armies due to excessive hiring of foreign mercenaries, the result was deplorable .
Separation of Chechnya is already a "fait accompli" and it could be arranged legally at any moment, but does not just to continue receiving financial aid. The separation of several or all of the North Caucasus republics is going to happen in the nearest future, the same should happen to other areas settled by aliens. Also, in the medium term rejection of Siberia by China is almost inevitable. The story will be the same as with the republics of Caucasian mountains, however, we should take into consideration enormous support of the Chinese government, which encourages emigration, and conducting economic penetration to Russia. When the percentage of Chinese people will reach, for instance, half of the population, the remained fragmented Russians would have no moral strength to resist, especially because most of them will be tied to China economically. The Chinese will be in local authorities, the Chinese will be in each neighborhood, they will move freely back and forth the border, and when they want to claim this land for themselves there will be nobody to oppose, maybe with exception of few radicals. And even if someone dares to - now the superiority of the Chinese army on the Russian one in the region is enormous, more than ten times. Let us not deceive ourselves, it's impossible to relocate the troops from the European part, the experience of recent military operations or exercises shows that it would take at least a month. Taking into account the transected auto and railway lines in the first hours or days of the war it would become simply impossible. China easily crush the Russian army by its tanks , artillery and air forces. They will be able to move quickly additional troops, China builds roads from the interior lands to Russian border and also road along that border, but Russia doesn't do the same, the story repeats as with Germany in 1941. Nuclear capabilities and Air Defense of China are growing , they do not participate in any weapon reduction treaties and build gigantic nuclear bomb shelters. Russia's potential falls down and becomes obsolete. Weapons are old and percentage of new is very low. Nuclear warheads are destroyed . In case of conflict, Russia has less and less chances, everyone understands that a nuclear strike would cause massive Chinese retaliation. Most likely Russia just quietly go away from these lands.
It is unlikely that Russia completely disappear as the land of Russians. Most likely it is awaiting the fate of many great empires of the past. The Roman Empire, which covered both shores of the Mediterranean Sea downgraded to a small Italy, British Empire came to where it began - an island in the Atlantic. 8,000,000 of Mongols exist independently only due long-standing support of the Russian Empire and the patience of the Chinese people, who know that sooner or later they'll reclaim Mongolia back as it was 100 years ago. Great Polish state lost its Baltic territories and Western Ukraine . Austrian - Hungary Empire got split into merely Austria and Hungary and lost many other lands. And so on. In the next 10-20 years we will probably see U.S. Southwest will form the new Latin American state or acceding to Mexico. Very soon there will be a majority of Mexicans throughout the population, police and army. U.S. South and part of the East Coast will possibly form new Negro state. Perhaps there will be some excitement in China, but so far it shows no signs of weakness and is on the rise. Probably China is going to form a vast empire from the Indian Ocean to the Arctic Ocean .
If Ukraine allows that the Crimean Tatars reaches 40-50 % of the total population, the civil war will become inevitable with a predictable result given Turkey's direct military support and most likely the UN and NATO interference. Crimea will become Turkish protectorate supported by Turkish troops just like Northern Cyprus. The seizure of the Crimea by Russia in the light of their own problems of the last century (constant loosing of territories) is highly unlikely, although in the case of the conflict right now the biggest ethnic group will be the winners. But even in the case of Crimea becoming formally Russian, Tatars, have all chances to breed and collect it for themselves not from the Ukraine now, but from Russia later. The transformation of the unitary state of Ukraine into the federal state and the granting of autonomy to Crimea was a great, if not fatal mistake.
Who is to blame and what to do? Certainly the blame lays on the many rulers of Russia - starting from Emperor Nikolay II, which proved to be too weak, and lost the country. It lays on Judeo - Communist leaders, who destroyed passionateness the Russian people and also on the present rulers of Russia, continuing this destruction. In order to survive, not to be curled up to the small national state, any empire should be rigid and strong. It should suppress all the glimpses of the national consciousness of its member nations, to assimilate them as much as possible or even to genocide them and settle the territories with the major nation. Keep in mind that the whole is better assimilated than the half, i.e., if some people have a national state beyond the borders of the empire, they will receive spiritual support from it). The hard truth of history is that any freedom that allows smaller nations to achieve superiority in a certain area guarantees the rebellion and the risk of loss of this territory (and later, perhaps, counterstrike). It would not do any "sovereign democracy ", no liberalism , etc. Only severe pressure , assimilation up to genocide or defeat. For example, the United States nowadays has no possibility of an Indian rebellion, the percentage of Indian population is now no more than 0,7%. But under the influence of the Jewish government they missed South-West to the Mexican " Reconquista" and South to the Negroes, which would destroy the U.S. in its present borders by means of a bloody civil war .
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